Adakah harga kenderaan tenaga baharu akan meningkat pada 2022?
Statistik terkini daripada Persatuan Automobil China menunjukkan bahawa pada November tahun ini, pengeluaran dan jualan kenderaan tenaga baharu masing-masing mencapai 457,000 dan 450,000, dengan kadar penembusan pasaran sebanyak 17.8 peratus , yang mana kadar penembusan pasaran kenderaan penumpang tenaga baharu mencapai 19.5 peratus . Dari Januari hingga November, pengeluaran dan jualan kenderaan tenaga baharu ialah 3.023 juta dan 2.99 juta, meningkat 1.7 kali setahun-kepada-tahun. Ouyang Minggao, ahli akademik Akademi Sains China, meramalkan bahawa jualan domestik kenderaan tenaga baharu akan mencecah kira-kira 3.3 juta tahun ini dan 5 juta tahun depan.
While the production and sales of new energy vehicles have risen rapidly, subsidies have also accelerated. According to the "Notice on Improving Financial Subsidy Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" jointly announced by the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries in April 2020, the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10 percent and 20 percent respectively on the basis of the previous year. percent , 30 percent . Although the detailed rules for the subsidy decline in 2022 have not yet been issued, more and more car companies are preparing for the further decline of the subsidy.
Beberapa model-terlaris telah mula menaikkan harga
Pada 24 November, harga versi pemacu-roda-belakang Tesla Model 3 dan Model Y domestik telah dinaikkan sebanyak 4,752 yuan, daripada 250,900 yuan dan 276,000 yuan kepada 255,652 yuan dan 280,752 yuan, masing-masing. Tidak seperti kenaikan harga sebelum ini yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan kos bahan mentah, sebab penting untuk kenaikan harga ini ialah penurunan subsidi. Difahamkan bahawa masa penghantaran semasa untuk Model 3 dan Model Y adalah pada suku pertama 2022.
Secara kebetulan, sejak 13 Disember, hak pembelian kereta tiga model Xiaopeng Motors telah dikurangkan kepada tahap yang berbeza-beza. Antaranya, pakej hak pembelian kereta P7 telah dikurangkan sebanyak 5,000-10,000 yuan, P5 telah dikurangkan sebanyak 4,000 yuan, dan G3i telah dikurangkan sebanyak 5,000 yuan. Kemudian nikmati kaedah faedah 0 atau faedah rendah. Orang dalam industri percaya bahawa sebagai tambahan kepada kekangan rantaian bekalan, penurunan subsidi adalah sebab penting bagi Xiaopeng untuk mengecilkan hak pembelian keretanya.
Pada masa yang sama, penurunan subsidi menjadi gimik kepada syarikat kereta untuk merangsang penggunaan. Pada 7 Disember, poster propaganda ID.4CROZZ dan ID.6CROZZ yang dikeluarkan secara rasmi oleh FAW-Volkswagen menulis: Kira detik kepada penurunan subsidi negara, bermula dari 1 Januari 2022, subsidi negeri tenaga baharu akan dikurangkan sebanyak 5,400 yuan!
It is worth noting that in the face of the delay in order delivery and the further decline of subsidies due to the upgrade of the production line, NIO adopted the strategy of "paying for itself". Weilai said that users who paid a deposit to buy ES8, ES6, and EC6 before December 31 this year and purchased the car on March 31, 2022 can still enjoy subsidies in accordance with the national subsidy standard in 2021, that is, the vehicle standard. Models with battery packs (75kWh) and long-life battery packs (100kWh) can still enjoy subsidies of 16,200 yuan and 18,000 yuan respectively. At present, the delivery cycle of NIO is about 2 months, that is, for users who book cars before the end of the year, the delivery time of new cars is all in 2022. That is to say, the price difference arising from the subsidy decline in 2022 will be borne by NIO.
In addition, Nezha car sales staff also said that as long as the vehicle is ordered this year, even if the pick-up time is next year, you can still enjoy this year's subsidy policy.
"There is a high probability that there will be no significant increase"
Syarikat kereta yang berbeza mempunyai kuasa tawar-menawar pasaran yang berbeza. Bagi syarikat kereta terkemuka, kenaikan harga yang kecil mempunyai sedikit kesan ke atas jualan yang dijangkakan; bagi syarikat kereta di peringkat pendakian, mereka lebih suka menanggung kerugian daripada risiko penurunan dalam jualan. . Dasar itu menetapkan bahawa piawaian subsidi untuk kenderaan tenaga baharu pada 2022 akan dikurangkan sebanyak 30 peratus pada asas 2021, dan ia merupakan tahun terakhir subsidi untuk kenderaan tenaga baharu. Jadi, adakah kemerosotan 30 peratus dalam kekuatan menyebabkan sejumlah besar kenderaan tenaga baharu meningkat harganya?
"At present (new energy vehicle) sales have basically entered the market-oriented track, and subsidies have little impact. Although there are no subsidies, non-subsidy policies such as double credits, carbon emissions, and travel restrictions will still be used. At the same time, with the rise in oil prices, fuel Compared with electric vehicles, the cost of using a car increases. Therefore, the impact of the subsidy decline will not be too great." Ouyang Minggao believes.
Cao Guangping, an independent researcher on new energy and intelligent connected vehicles, said that whether new energy vehicles will usher in a price hike in 2022 depends on the game of various factors. "The negatives include tight battery supply, no more mature new battery routes to replace, difficulty in large-scale recycling and utilization of existing lithium-ion battery raw materials, and declining subsidies. The increase in the price of points, the reduction of the cost of other parts by car companies, and the disguised increase of profits by car companies in after-sales or OTA (over-the-air download) upgrades can also absorb some of the price increase factors."
In addition, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Federation, also made it clear that in 2022, the price of new energy vehicles "is unlikely to increase significantly."
Syarikat kereta akan memulakan pusingan baharu ujian
It is understood that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has been implemented since 2009, and it has been 12 years. In 2019, subsidies fell sharply, which led to the reshuffle of the new energy vehicle market, the reshaping of the pattern, the sharp drop in sales, and the elimination of some car companies that depended on subsidies to survive. At present, my country's new energy vehicles have made great strides from policy-driven to market-driven, and the market penetration rate has been increasing. With the substantial increase in the cruising range of power lithium-ion batteries, the gradual improvement of charging infrastructure, and the support of various local preferential policies, consumers have The acceptance of new energy vehicles is getting higher and higher. Under this development trend, the decline or cancellation of subsidies for new energy vehicles will be inevitable.
In fact, even if the price of vehicles does not increase, the pressure on car companies is increasing. Problems such as chip shortages and skyrocketing battery raw material prices have plagued car companies. The superimposed subsidy decline may further compress the profit margins of car companies, and car companies with low sales will fall into a more difficult situation. Chen Qingtai, chairman of my country's Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, pointed out that although non-subsidy support is still available, for the market, next year will be a "hurdle", and car companies will usher in a new round of tests.
"After the subsidy is withdrawn, the relevant technical rules such as battery energy density, power consumption per 100 kilometers, etc. are no longer required, and even if the battery replacement subsidy is canceled, the cost-effective models that meet the needs of users will develop better, and the head aggregation situation will also improve. It is easier to form." Cao Guangping said.
