Harga melebihi 220,000 yuan / tan dan harga litium karbonat muncul semula
Menurut berita perniagaan, pada 24 November, harga litium karbonat dalam banyak syarikat seperti Shanghai Chen Lithium New Material Technology Co., Ltd. dan Shanghai Qingli Industrial Co., Ltd. meningkat dan harga industri{{1} }gred litium karbonat dan bateri-gred litium karbonat dinaikkan dengan pelbagai darjah. Antaranya, harga bateri-gred litium karbonat Yongzhou Haoli New Material Technology Co., Ltd. melebihi 220,000 yuan / tan, dan sebut harga sebelumnya adalah sehingga 200,{{7 }} yuan / tan.
Kenaikan harga litium karbonat secara langsung berkaitan dengan perkembangan hebat kenderaan tenaga baharu dalam beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini, yang telah membawa permintaan besar untuk bateri litium{0}}ion berkuasa.
In November last year, the State Council announced the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", which clearly mentioned that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles should reach 20 percent of the total sales of new vehicles, and by 2020 my country The penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales is only about 5 percent . Some institutions predict that by 2025, my country's new energy vehicle sales will reach about 4.96 million, about 4 times that of 2020.
The sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise, driving the output and installed capacity of upstream power lithium{{0}}ion batteries to increase significantly. Data show that from January to October, my country's power lithium-ion battery output accumulated to 159.8GWh, a year-on-year increase of 250.0 percent . In terms of vehicle loading, in the past 10 months, my country's power lithium-ion battery loading volume has accumulated to 107.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 168.1 percent .
The research report of CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that with the rapid increase in demand for lithium-ion batteries for new energy vehicles, it is estimated that the demand for lithium in 2021-2022 will be 610,000 tons and 800,000 tons, respectively, with a gap of 43,000 tons and 57,000 tons, respectively. The penetration rate of automobiles continues to exceed expectations, and the expansion rate of upstream lithium resources is difficult to meet the demand for downstream battery materials. The tight supply of battery raw materials such as lithium carbonate has left some companies "out of stock".
Yongxing Materials' current products are battery-grade lithium carbonate and quasi-battery-grade lithium carbonate. In its survey summary disclosed on November 24, it mentioned that the company has no lithium carbonate inventory. In order to cope with the possible mismatch between mining, dressing and smelting in the second phase of the project, there are currently more than 40,000 tons of mica concentrate in stock. According to the resource reserves owned by the company, if 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate is produced every year in the future, the reasonable service life of the production line can be guaranteed.
At the same time, the company's lithium carbonate price follows the market, and the recent sales price has increased significantly compared with July-August. Costs have also risen, but the raw materials are self-owned mines, which are generally still within a reasonable range.
It is understood that there are currently two extraction paths for lithium carbonate: lithium extraction from ore and lithium extraction from salt lakes. The important raw material for lithium extraction from ore is spodumene concentrate, which has a long history and relatively mature technology; lithium extraction from salt lake refers to the lithium-containing brine formed after potassium salt is extracted from salt lake brine, and is subjected to deep magnesium removal, carbonization and impurity removal and complex removal. Lithium carbonate, an important raw material for the new energy industry, is obtained after decalcification. Faced with the tight supply of lithium, companies have also started a "buy, buy, buy" model.
In terms of lithium mines, in July this year, Ganfeng Lithium revealed in its announcement that Ganfeng International, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, would launch a tender offer for the Canadian lithium company Millennium Lithium with its own funds, with a transaction amount not exceeding 353 million Canadian dollars. Yuan (about 1.783 billion yuan). Who would have thought that "a journey came out halfway", in September, Ningde Times proposed to acquire Millennium Lithium Industry for 376.8 million Canadian dollars (about 1.903 billion yuan), which is about 7 percent higher than the purchase price of Ganfeng Lithium Industry . In November, Millennium Lithium announced that the final acquirer was Canadian Lithium Corporation Americas Lithium, and the major shareholder of Americas Lithium was Ganfeng Lithium. At the same time, America Lithium will also pay CATL 20 million (about 128 million yuan) in liquidated damages.
Pada 9 Oktober, notis yang didedahkan oleh saudagar garam litium Kanada NeoLithium menunjukkan bahawa Zijin Mining telah bersetuju untuk memperoleh semua saham terbitan NeoLithium pada C6.50 (kira-kira RMB 32.84) sesaham, untuk jumlah pertimbangan kira-kira C960 juta (kira-kira 48.50). yuan). bilion yuan). NeoLithium memiliki sepenuhnya projek tasik garam litium Tres Quebradas (3Q) Argentina dengan 7 juta tan bersamaan litium karbonat (LCE).
Pada petang 3 November, Shengxin Lithium Energy mengumumkan bahawa Shengyi International,-anak syarikat milik penuh syarikat itu di Hong Kong, merancang untuk membeli 51 peratus kepentingan dalam MaxMind Hong Kong pada harga AS76.5 juta (kira-kira 489 juta yuan). MaxMind Hong Kong, melalui-Syarikat Sun Zimbabwe milik penuhnya, memiliki lesen perlombongan untuk sejumlah 40 nugget logam nadir yang terletak di Projek Tambang Tantalum Lithium Sabi Star-di Zimbabwe.
Dari segi tasik garam, dua tasik garam di Tibet, Alilongmucuo dan Jiezechaka, yang dilabur dan dibangunkan oleh Tibet Urban Investment, mempunyai jumlah rizab sebanyak 3.9 juta tan litium karbonat (rizab besar), 28 juta tan kalium klorida (rizab sederhana). ), boron (dengan tiga rizab). Diboron oksida) 3.3 juta tan (rizab bersaiz sederhana-), yang mana rizab litium karbonat berada di antara yang teratas di dunia. Pada 25 November, syarikat itu ditutup pada had harian.
Jadi, bilakah air pasang litium karbonat akan berakhir?
SMM's recent research shows that from a fundamental point of view, lithium carbonate may form a supply gap of about 16 percent in the past two months. Although material factories have cleared inventory and traders have released goods, or the supply pressure may have eased, the fundamentals are firm, and it is expected that the market outlook will be Lithium carbonate prices will continue to rise slightly.
Guotai Junan Securities juga baru-baru ini menyatakan bahawa kenaikan harga litium ketiga telah dibuat dan dimulakan, dan harga litium karbonat akan menjadi yang pertama mendahului kenaikan. Pasukan bukan ferusnya-mengatakan dalam minit panggilan persidangan bahawa penyimpanan stok pada suku keempat hingga akhir tahun akan menjadi pemangkin kepada kenaikan ketiga harga litium. Sebelum Pesta Musim Bunga atau akhir Disember, harga bateri-gred litium karbonat mungkin mencecah 250,000 yuan / tan.
Pasukan Guotai Junan Securities Nonferrous Metals juga percaya bahawa ketegangan dalam industri litium pada tahun 2022 akan lebih tinggi daripada pada tahun 2021. Pada tahun 2022, bekalan litium akan meningkat sebanyak 33 peratus -35 peratus, tetapi jadual pengeluaran am katod dan bateri hiliran telah meningkat dua kali ganda, dan peningkatan bekalan boleh dikawal sepenuhnya oleh permintaan. Meliputi, di bawah corak kukuh kekurangan bekalan dan permintaan asas, kami optimis bahawa harga semerta litium mungkin berterusan hingga 2022 dan 2023, dan tinjauan jangka sederhana dan panjang tidak akan dihadkan.
Menurut statistik Cawangan Industri Litium Persatuan Industri Logam Bukan Ferrus negara saya, bermula dari 2021, penggunaan global produk litium akan meningkat dengan ketara. Maklumat Longzhong membuat spekulasi bahawa bekalan sumber litium dijangka tidak mencukupi sedikit pada 2022-2023, dan pusat harga litium akan meningkat dengan ketara. Harga litium dijangka kekal tinggi pada 2022-2023. Pada 2024-2026, lombong litium domestik dan asing dan sumber tasik garam Walau bagaimanapun, disebabkan jangkaan peningkatan pesat dalam permintaan, bahagian bekalan tidak akan terlalu banyak bekalan, dan harga litium dijangka menurun pada tahap tertentu sambil mengekalkan pusat yang tinggi. .
