The battery company was attacked by both sides, and the power lithium battery company was "swimming naked"?
Di satu pihak, gergasi bateri litium CATL meluluskan mesyuarat IPO dalam masa 24 hari, menetapkan rekod baharu untuk mesyuarat IPO; sebaliknya, Jianruiwo Neng sekali lagi mengeluarkan pengumuman pengurangan pemegang saham, dan pada masa yang sama meramalkan kerugian lebih 300 juta yuan pada suku pertama tahun ini. Anda mesti tahu bahawa Jianrui Wo Neng menduduki tempat ketiga dalam kapasiti terpasang bateri kuasa domestik pada 2017, kedua selepas CATL dan BYD, dan memperoleh keuntungan sebanyak 254 juta pada suku pertama tahun lepas. Apabila laluan teknikal diselaraskan dan dasar subsidi dasar tenaga baharu domestik ditarik balik secara beransur-ansur, rombakan syarikat bateri kuasa semakin meningkat. Tahun lepas, bukan sahaja CATL dan BYD bertukar tempat duduk, malah prestasi banyak perusahaan-kecil dan sederhana turut merosot.
Syarikat bateri diserang oleh kedua-dua pihak
Buffett once said that you don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out. The new energy vehicle industry, which was once in full swing, ushered in a major reshuffle after the subsidy ebb.
On the evening of April 9, Jian Rui Wo Neng, who was in crisis, said that the company's loss has increased significantly, mainly due to the decrease in orders from its wholly-owned subsidiary Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd. Jianrui Wo Neng and Waterma said that the occurrence of the breakage incident and the impact of the 2017 national subsidy retreat on the market were misjudged, and the scale expansion was not controlled in time, resulting in untimely payment. This opened the tip of the iceberg.
The predecessor of Jianrui Weneng was Jianrui Fire. In 2016, it acquired 100 percent equity of Waterma and entered the field of lithium iron phosphate new energy vehicle power battery and automobile starting power supply. However, the new energy vehicle industry is generally highly dependent on subsidies. The decline in subsidies has led to a decline in the profits of battery companies. In 2017, BYD's net profit also fell by 19.51 percent year-on-year, and it is expected to drop by 75.24 percent -91.75 percent in the first quarter of this year.
Bateri kuasa ialah komponen teras kenderaan tenaga baharu, dan kos menyumbang 30 peratus -50 peratus daripada keseluruhan kenderaan. Subsidi menurun, dan perusahaan bateri kuasa juga mesti menanggung tekanan pengurangan harga yang sepadan. Di satu pihak, pelanggan memberi tekanan pada pengurangan harga bateri, dan sebaliknya, pembekal huluan menaikkan harga secara liar. Keadaan syarikat bateri boleh dibayangkan. Walaupun dalam CATL, di mana bateri litium terner menyumbang hampir separuh daripada jualannya pada 2017, margin keuntungan kasar sistem bateri kuasa produk utamanya dari 2015 hingga 2017 masing-masing ialah 41.40 peratus , 44.84 peratus dan 35.25 peratus , yang menurun dengan ketara dalam 2017.
Today, these two factors still plague power battery manufacturers: First, the price of raw materials has skyrocketed. Among them, the most expensive cathode material, cobalt, currently reaches 600,000 yuan per ton, and is known as "cobalt grandma" in the industry. The second is the reduction of state subsidies. In 2018, the subsidy quota for new energy buses will be reduced by about 40 percent , which will be officially implemented on June 12 this year. In 2017, the installed capacity of batteries with an energy density of less than 105Wh/kg accounted for 50.7 percent . This part will not be subsidized this year, which will promote the accelerated reshuffle of the power battery industry. It is expected that new energy subsidies will be fully withdrawn in 2020, and competition with international giants without subsidies will be a major test for domestic power battery companies.
Penggantian plat kepala bateri kuasa
Menurut data, lima jualan bateri kuasa global teratas pada 2017 ialah CATL, Panasonic, BYD, Waterma dan LG Chem, dengan jualan masing-masing 11.84GWh, 10GWh, 7.2GWh, 5.5GWh dan 4.5GWh. Di luar negara, Panasonic ialah peneraju dalam bateri kuasa di Jepun, dan LG dan Samsung ialah dua bateri kuasa di Korea Selatan. Dengan saiz yang besar, mereka memanfaatkan skala mereka dan berada di kedudukan utama dalam teknologi bateri dan automasi.
In 2017, CATL's power battery shipments increased by 73 percent , surpassing Panasonic in one fell swoop and taking the world's first position in the industry. Judging from the installed capacity of power batteries, which can better reflect market share, CATL was 10.4GWh in 2017, and one company monopolized nearly 30 percent of the market. The company was valued at 130 billion when it was issued, and it is the first stock of power batteries that is well-deserved in terms of listing speed and valuation.
Pada 2016, BYD menduduki tempat pertama di China dan kedua di dunia untuk bateri kuasa. Dengan kemunculan tiba-tiba era Ningde, prestasinya merosot pada 2017.
Walau bagaimanapun, disebabkan peningkatan pesat dalam kapasiti pengeluaran bateri kuasa dan penurunan dasar subsidi untuk kenderaan tenaga baharu, harga sistem bateri kuasa dalam CATL telah dikurangkan dengan banyak, daripada 2.28 yuan/Wj pada 2015 kepada 1.41 yuan/Wj pada 2017, penurunan terkumpul sehingga 38.26 peratus . Keuntungan bersih selepas pemotongan bukan-deduktibel dalam CATL juga turun daripada 2.96 bilion yuan pada 2016 kepada 2.47 bilion yuan pada 2017.
Pada masa ini, laluan teknikal arus perdana bagi bateri kereta penumpang tenaga baharu ialah bateri terner (bateri terner juga merupakan laluan teknikal utama CATL), iaitu bateri litium dengan nikel-kobalt litium manganat atau nikel{{1} } kobalt litium aluminat sebagai bahan katod, dan kobalt sebagai bahan katod. Penstabil sangat diperlukan. Litium ternary mempunyai ketumpatan tenaga yang tinggi dan boleh memberikan hayat bateri yang lebih lama. Menjelang 2017, harga bateri litium terner telah menurun kepada minimum 1.4-1.5 yuan/Wh, yang pada asasnya sama dengan fosfat besi litium. Peningkatan bateri ternary adalah sebab penting bagi era Ningde untuk mengatasi BYD.
It's getting harder for SMEs
When the leaders in the industry change their positions, other small and medium{{0}}sized companies in China's power battery industry also experience the industry's cold and warm - the largest of which, Waterma, had an installed capacity of only 2.3GWh in 2017. This company and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which ranked fourth last year and is also a listed company, only have a gap of 0.4GWh in the installed capacity of power lithium batteries, which is not even a fraction of the capacity of power batteries under construction between the two parties-Waterma 2020 The planned annual production capacity is 20GWh, while Guoxuan Hi-Tech has a higher target of 30GWh. Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which is mainly engaged in new materials for iron-lithium power batteries, achieved a net profit of 920 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 10.73 percent .
Chengfei Integration, which is mainly engaged in the lithium battery business, achieved an operating income of 2 billion yuan in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 9.04 percent ; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was -77.3428 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 156.16 percent , while the company's net profit in 2016 was as high as 137 million yuan. This is Chengfei Integrated's first loss in ten years. Chengfei Integration mainly produces lithium iron phosphate batteries, and its main customers are new energy buses, which are more affected by policy decline than passenger cars.
Bateri kuasa berlebihan yang serius
Data menunjukkan bahawa pada tahun 2017, kapasiti terpasang bateri kuasa kenderaan tenaga baharu di negara saya ialah 36.27Gwj, peningkatan kira-kira 20 peratus tahun-ke-tahun, yang jauh daripada 50- 60GWj dianggarkan oleh industri pada awal 2017; dan laluan teknikal bateri litium telah mengalami perubahan besar. Bahagian pasaran bateri kuasa melebihi 44 peratus , yang meningkat dua kali ganda daripada 2016. Ini juga sesuatu yang Jian Ruiwu tidak boleh jangkakan.
Sebaliknya, jumlah pengeluaran dan jualan kenderaan tenaga baharu di negara saya tahun lepas hampir 800,000 unit, meningkat 50 peratus berbanding 2016; pengeluaran kenderaan penumpang tenaga baharu mencecah 478,000 unit, setahun-pada-peningkatan tahun lebih daripada 200,000 unit. Jelas sekali, kadar pertumbuhan kapasiti terpasang bateri kuasa tidak dapat bersaing dengan kadar pertumbuhan pengeluaran dan jualan kenderaan tenaga baharu, kerana struktur pengeluaran dan jualan kenderaan tenaga baharu telah berubah, dan perkadaran kereta penumpang dan kenderaan khas telah meningkat dengan pesat. . Di bawah aliran menurun pasaran kenderaan penumpang tenaga baharu, kenderaan penumpang tenaga baharu yang terus membuat kemajuan besar telah menjadi teras pertumbuhan prestasi bateri kuasa.
At the same time, the power battery production capacity has been seriously excessive. It is reported that in 2017, the production capacity of my country's entire power battery industry exceeded 200GWh, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 100GWh in 2020.
The prospectus of CATL also reflects this. In 2017, CATL's lithium-ion battery production capacity was 17.09GWh, output was 12.91GWh, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.54 percent ; while in 2015 and 2016, it was 96.92 percent and 92.37 percent , respectively, and the company's capacity utilization rate was 96.92 percent . It has declined for two consecutive years, with a decline of 20 percent . This may be the company's response.
Di China, BYD adalah pesaing paling mengancam dalam era CATL. Bekas penguasa bateri ini telah diatasi oleh CATL dari segi penghantaran tahun lepas. Untuk mendapatkan semula kedudukan utama bateri, BYD membuat dua pelarasan penting: satu ialah melaraskan laluan teknologi bateri. Sejak 2017, BYD telah mula menggunakan bateri litium ternary dalam perniagaan kereta penumpangnya, dan model elektrik tulen yang dihasilkan pada 2018 dan kemudiannya juga akan menggunakan bateri litium ternary. Walau bagaimanapun, syarikat bateri seperti CATL dan Guoxuan Hi-Tech juga telah mula mengembangkan kapasiti pengeluaran bateri ternary. Yang kedua ialah memutarkan perniagaan bateri kuasa dan mengendalikannya secara bebas untuk membekalkan syarikat kenderaan tenaga baharu yang lain.
In the Ningde era, it has won nearly 30 percent of the domestic power battery market share - when it reaches twice BYD's, whether BYD can return to the first place will be one of the highlights of China's power batteries in the future.
