Bekalan tempat litium karbonat semakin ketat, indeks bateri-ion litium meningkat 82.75 peratus sepanjang tahun
Recently, Guotai Junan's announcement about the third price increase of lithium resources has caused a heated discussion in the market. It believes that the third lithium price increase has been brewed and started, and the price of lithium carbonate is the first to lead the rise. The supply and demand of lithium continue to be tight in a short time. Prices may remain strong.
According to Guotai Junan's analysis, the first time the price of lithium resources increased was from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year. The second price increase was from the end of June this year, when the price of lithium was 90,000 yuan / ton, and by the end of September, the price of lithium was close to the historical high of 180,000 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is in the range of 195,000-200,000 yuan per ton, and stocking up a year ago will become the core catalyst for the third rise.
A reporter from "Securities Daily" combed the Flush Lithium-ion Battery Index (885710) and found that during the first price increase of lithium resources, the index fluctuated less and remained at around 900 points, but it began to rise rapidly in May 2021, and once surged As high as 1700 points, during the second price increase, the index rose by 50 percent , and fell back to around 1500 points in late September. After entering November, the index started a new wave of gains. As of November 24, the index reached 1679 points, an increase of 82.75 percent during the year.
Qu Yinfei, seorang penganalisis litium di Bahagian Tenaga Baharu Shanghai Ganglian, memberitahu wartawan Securities Daily bahawa percanggahan yang semakin jelas antara bekalan dan permintaan telah mendorong kenaikan harga sumber litium. Pada masa ini, sebab kenaikan harga pasaran semasa adalah sebagai tambahan kepada kenaikan berterusan harga lombong, dan percanggahan antara penawaran dan permintaan masih menjadi kemuncak kenaikan harga. satu. Dijejaskan oleh penutupan beberapa terminal peleburan, bekalan spot litium karbonat menjadi semakin ketat, dan sumber eksport semakin berkurangan. Di samping itu, sentimen hiliran adalah tinggi, dan arah aliran pasaran litium karbonat adalah agak jelas.
Qu Yinfei said: "The rising price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased downstream cost pressure, so downstream companies also intend to increase prices, but there is a lag in price transmission. During the price increase, downstream companies' profits will be due to the high price of raw materials. my country's dependence on imported lithium mines is extremely high, and the rising price of lithium mine resources is one of the future trends. Therefore, some industrial chain companies are actively deploying overseas lithium mines, which can effectively control the cost of raw materials and lay the foundation for subsequent company expansion. ."
Terdapat sedikit sumber bijih litium domestik, tetapi sumber garam litium sangat kaya. Oleh itu, di bawah jangkaan kenaikan harga sumber litium, pasaran modal memberi perhatian kepada penggabungan dan pemerolehan sumber bijih litium luar negara oleh syarikat domestik, yang menjadikan Ningde Times, Tianqi Lithium dan lain-lain syarikat tersenarai secara aktif yang menggunakan sumber bijih litium luar negara telah diiktiraf oleh pasaran dan dicari oleh dana. Sebaliknya, menumpukan pada konsep pengekstrakan litium dari tasik garam, syarikat tersenarai dengan sumber dan teknologi medan garam yang berkaitan juga telah menjadi tumpuan pasaran baru-baru ini.
Zhang Cuixia, ketua perunding pelaburan Jufeng Investment, menegaskan kepada wartawan Securities Daily bahawa mendapat manfaat daripada ledakan berterusan dalam kenderaan tenaga baharu hiliran, bateri litium dan industri lain, sektor sumber litium telah menjadi salah satu landasan terhangat tahun ini, dan di bawah gelombang global tenaga baharu, harga sumber litium juga meningkat, menunjukkan trend yang semakin meningkat. Kenaikan harga seperti ini menjadikan huluan rantaian industri sebagai penerima manfaat terbesar, tetapi kita mesti berwaspada terhadap kesan terhadap industri hiliran, kerana tiada pakatan industri untuk menyelaraskan keseimbangan penawaran dan permintaan, dan peningkatan mendadak dalam harga bahan mentah huluan akan menjejaskan hasil dan keuntungan bersih industri hiliran. Ia malah membawa kepada peningkatan lagi dalam percanggahan antara bekalan dan permintaan huluan dan hiliran.
Zhang Cuixia added: "In order to cope with the increase in resource prices, domestic lithium-ion battery industry chain companies have launched overseas lithium mine acquisitions, which has also become a hot spot for capital to pursue. However, with the current high lithium resources, the acquisition price is also rising. It may bring obvious financial pressure to listed companies, and some unpredictable risks may occur in lithium ore reserves and mining costs. At present, the lithium-ion battery sector has risen too high, and some listed companies have already had high valuations. The value premium, even if there is still room for price increases in lithium resources in the future, the risks of related listed companies are also accumulating, and the room and motivation for the increase is not high."
